ALTHOUGH MANY Filipinos herald former President Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest by the International Criminal Court (ICC) as a significant victory for human rights, recent polls have shown that the arrest has also drastically affected subsequent polling for the 2025 Senatorial Elections—catapulting Duterte’s political allies to the top spots.
The change in polling preference illustrates a recurring trend in Philippine elections: the manipulation of misfortune into political dominance.
Grief as gunpowder
In 2009, a groundswell of support launched Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III into the presidential race following the death of his mother and former president Corazon Aquino that same year. The “Noynoy Phenomenon,” as it is known today, propelled a previously unlikely bid for the presidency to the highest seat in the nation, with Aquino winning by a six-million lead.
Through the power of “sympathy voting,” Aquino’s rise mirrored the political beginnings of his mother, which began with the assassination of her husband, then-opposition leader Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr.
In an interview with Rappler, political psychologist Cristina Montiel, PhD stated that sympathy votes do not necessarily win elections on their own; instead, they are an avenue for other favorable narratives about a candidate to enter the discussion.
In successful cases, a person who may have recently died is not only beloved but leaves behind a political network on the electoral field that “may be activated for another person.” However, she added that these candidates must convincingly present themselves to voters as the direct and undeniable successor of their popular predecessor.
During the 2004 Senatorial Elections, for example, a tribute dedicated to the late Senator Renato Cayetano highlighted his close relationship with daughter Pia Cayetano, who ultimately won a senatorial seat as a first-time national candidate.
Battle of narratives
As explained by sociologist Ash Presto and political scientist Jan Robert Go in an interview, the emotional nature of Filipino culture and politics has resulted in “sympathy-baiting” campaigns.
For instance, the narrative proliferated by the Marcos family following the 1986 People Power Revolution frames them as victims of persecution by their political opponents. The claim has since prompted fact-checking efforts from media and educational organizations to debunk common misconceptions and remind the youth about the theft and atrocities committed during the Marcos Sr. presidency.
Similarly, the administration of former president Rodrigo Duterte employed similar messaging after his ICC arrest. According to an analysis by Cristina Chi of Philstar.com, at least 200 Facebook accounts framed the arrest as an act of “kidnapping,” which Duterte claimed would lead to the presidency of his daughter, current Vice President Sara Duterte.
Echoing the same sentiment are Duterte’s own family and allies, such as his daughters Veronica and Sara Duterte, former spokesperson Harry Roque, and Senator Christopher “Bong” Go. Even former Executive Secretary Salvador Medialdea, one of Duterte’s counsels in the ICC, called his arrest an “extrajudicial rendition” during the pre-trial.
The influx of disinformation regarding Duterte’s arrest has since prompted Cabinet members and legal experts to explain the basis of the arrest. Furthermore, the families of the victims of Duterte’s drug war contrast his situation to the fate of their loved ones, all of whom were denied due process.
Despite these controversies, both the Duterte and Marcos families continue to enjoy the support of many Filipinos. For instance, the Marcoses returned to Malacañang after the landslide victory of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in the 2022 elections.
Meanwhile, the Dutertes have received a similar treatment from their public supporters, as their allied senatoriables remain popular in pre-election surveys despite the former president’s arrest and his daughter’s pending impeachment trials.
Maintaining a legacy
These sympathy-baiting campaigns throughout history have set the foundation for several political families. Through the use of emotionally backed narratives, many of these families’ heirs are able to gain a foothold in the country’s government.
In the context of Duterte, he began his national career by framing himself as an incorruptible political outsider, which resonated fiercely with a voterbase fed up with corruption, inefficiency, and incompetence in the government.
Despite constant controversy throughout his term, he left office with record-high approval ratings across all socioeconomic classes, concentrated in Mindanao, his home island. The region has long been shaped by discussions of national government neglect, which further solidified support for Duterte.
Amid the region’s struggles, Duterte’s supporters saw his arrest—along with his daughter Sara’s impeachment—as an extension of the injustices that they themselves experience, with some even drawing parallels to the conditions that brought about the People Power Revolution.
As a result of concerns over rising inflation rates, rampant corruption, and his complicity in the perceived persecution of the Dutertes, President Marcos Jr.’s trust and approval ratings have seen a significant drop over the last few months, while Sara Duterte’s have steadily risen.
When utilized successfully, narratives provide a strong foundation for future candidates to run for office. As a result of the reputations associated with certain political families, their newer generations easily gain support during the elections. Such was demonstrated in Sara Duterte topping the most recent Pulse Asia poll on potential presidential bids for the 2028 elections.
As the 2025 midterm elections draw closer, emotionally-charged narratives may continue to take center stage as politicians rally support for their campaigns. In doing so, elections become compromised as more political candidates are put into the spotlight not out of merit or platforms, but merely out of their proximity to someone else.
